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Dobrovce vs Šmarje pri Jelšah — 3. SNL - East 2020

Dobrovce
Dobrovce
FT
2 – 2
Šmarje pri Jelšah
Šmarje pri Jelšah
5/22/20213. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - Relegation Round - 3Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dobrovce43%
×Draw20%
Šmarje pri Jelšah36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrovce
2.19
Šmarje pri Jelšah
1.99

Dobrovce creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dobrovce
1.25
Šmarje pri Jelšah
1.13

allows per match

Dobrovce
2.85
Šmarje pri Jelšah
3.13

finishing

Dobrovce+0.00on par
Šmarje pri Jelšah+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrovce ↓

Šmarje pri Jelšah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dobrovce or draw
64%
Dobrovce or Šmarje pri Jelšah
80%
Draw or Šmarje pri Jelšah
57%

Winning margin

Dobrovce wins by 2+
25%
Šmarje pri Jelšah wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dobrovce 1+ goals
89%
Dobrovce 2+ goals
64%
Dobrovce 3+ goals
37%
Šmarje pri Jelšah 1+ goals
86%
Šmarje pri Jelšah 2+ goals
59%
Šmarje pri Jelšah 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dobrovce (draw refunded)
55%
Šmarje pri Jelšah (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrovce at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

Šmarje pri Jelšah away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrovce attack 1.25 + Šmarje pri Jelšah defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.19

Šmarje pri Jelšah attack 1.13 + Dobrovce defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dobrovce scores more
43%
level
20%
Šmarje pri Jelšah scores more
36%

Dobrovce at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dobrovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobrovce vs Šmarje pri Jelšah

Dobrovce and Šmarje pri Jelšah drew 2-2 in 3. SNL - East on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Športni park in Dobrovce.