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Dobříš vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
PST
15:00
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
6/14/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 30UMT Dobříš (Dobříš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš44%
×Draw22%
Olympie Březová34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.97
Olympie Březová
1.71

Dobříš creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
66%
Dobříš or Olympie Březová
78%
Draw or Olympie Březová
56%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
25%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
86%
Dobříš 2+ goals
58%
Dobříš 3+ goals
31%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
82%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
51%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
57%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.97

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dobříš scores more
44%
level
22%
Olympie Březová scores more
34%

Dobříš at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dobříš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobříš face Olympie Březová (4. liga - Divizie B)

4. liga - Divizie B returns with Dobříš hosting Olympie Březová. Match starts June 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dobříš host Olympie Březová at UMT Dobříš (Dobříš).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.