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Dobříš vs Brandýs nad Labem — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
FT
4 – 2
Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
9/5/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3UMT Dobříš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš40%
×Draw22%
Brandýs nad Labem38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.77
Brandýs nad Labem
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Brandýs nad Labem
1.41

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Brandýs nad Labem
1.92

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Brandýs nad Labem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
62%
Dobříš or Brandýs nad Labem
78%
Draw or Brandýs nad Labem
60%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
21%
Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
83%
Dobříš 2+ goals
53%
Dobříš 3+ goals
26%
Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
82%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
52%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
51%
Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Brandýs nad Labem away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.92 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.41 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dobříš scores more
40%
level
22%
Brandýs nad Labem scores more
38%

Dobříš at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dobříš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobříš 4 – 2 Brandýs nad Labem

Dobříš beat Brandýs nad Labem 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at UMT Dobříš in Dobříš.