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Dobříš vs Baník Souš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
CANC
15:00
Baník Souš
Baník Souš
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 22UMT Dobříš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dobříš23%
×Draw22%
Baník Souš56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.21
Baník Souš
2.02

Baník Souš creates 67% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Baník Souš
2.00

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Baník Souš
0.78

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Baník Souš+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Baník Souš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
44%
Dobříš or Baník Souš
78%
Draw or Baník Souš
77%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
9%
Baník Souš wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
70%
Dobříš 2+ goals
34%
Dobříš 3+ goals
12%
Baník Souš 1+ goals
87%
Baník Souš 2+ goals
60%
Baník Souš 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
29%
Baník Souš (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Baník Souš away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Baník Souš defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Baník Souš attack 2.00 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dobříš scores more
23%
level
22%
Baník Souš scores more
56%

Baník Souš at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dobříš host Baník Souš

May 1, 2021: Dobříš take on Baník Souš in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dobříš host Baník Souš at UMT Dobříš.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.