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Dobele Allegro vs Bauskas / Mēmele — Cup 2020

Dobele Allegro
Dobele Allegro
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bauskas / Mēmele
Bauskas / Mēmele
5/8/2022CupCup · Preliminary RoundFK Jelgava Treniņbāze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dobele Allegro94%
×Draw5%
Bauskas / Mēmele1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobele Allegro
3.33
Bauskas / Mēmele
0.17

Dobele Allegro creates 1859% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dobele Allegro
1.33
Bauskas / Mēmele
0.00

allows per match

Dobele Allegro
0.33
Bauskas / Mēmele
5.33

finishing

Dobele Allegro+0.00on par
Bauskas / Mēmele+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobele Allegro ↓

Bauskas / Mēmele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–020%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (20%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dobele Allegro or draw
99%
Dobele Allegro or Bauskas / Mēmele
95%
Draw or Bauskas / Mēmele
6%

Winning margin

Dobele Allegro wins by 2+
80%
Bauskas / Mēmele wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Dobele Allegro 1+ goals
96%
Dobele Allegro 2+ goals
84%
Dobele Allegro 3+ goals
63%
Bauskas / Mēmele 1+ goals
16%
Bauskas / Mēmele 2+ goals
1%
Bauskas / Mēmele 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Dobele Allegro (draw refunded)
99%
Bauskas / Mēmele (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobele Allegro at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Bauskas / Mēmele away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobele Allegro attack 1.33 + Bauskas / Mēmele defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.33

Bauskas / Mēmele attack 0.00 + Dobele Allegro defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Dobele Allegro scores more
94%
level
5%
Bauskas / Mēmele scores more
1%

Dobele Allegro at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Dobele Allegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dobele Allegro 3–0 Bauskas / Mēmele

Dobele Allegro beat Bauskas / Mēmele 3-0 in Cup on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at FK Jelgava Treniņbāze in Jelgava.