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Dobele Allegro vs Augšdaugava — Cup 2020

Dobele Allegro
Dobele Allegro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Augšdaugava
Augšdaugava
M. Haritonovs 40'
6/12/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundFK Jelgava Treniņbāze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dobele Allegro62%
×Draw26%
Augšdaugava12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobele Allegro
1.50
Augšdaugava
0.50

Dobele Allegro creates 200% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dobele Allegro
1.33
Augšdaugava
0.67

allows per match

Dobele Allegro
0.33
Augšdaugava
1.67

finishing

Dobele Allegro+0.00on par
Augšdaugava+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobele Allegro ↓

Augšdaugava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dobele Allegro or draw
88%
Dobele Allegro or Augšdaugava
74%
Draw or Augšdaugava
38%

Winning margin

Dobele Allegro wins by 2+
33%
Augšdaugava wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dobele Allegro 1+ goals
78%
Dobele Allegro 2+ goals
44%
Dobele Allegro 3+ goals
19%
Augšdaugava 1+ goals
39%
Augšdaugava 2+ goals
9%
Augšdaugava 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dobele Allegro (draw refunded)
84%
Augšdaugava (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobele Allegro at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Augšdaugava away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobele Allegro attack 1.33 + Augšdaugava defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Augšdaugava attack 0.67 + Dobele Allegro defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dobele Allegro scores more
62%
level
26%
Augšdaugava scores more
12%

Dobele Allegro at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dobele Allegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. Haritonovs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobele Allegro vs Augšdaugava

Augšdaugava beat Dobele Allegro 1-0 in Cup on June 12, 2022.

Goals: M. Haritonovs (40').

The match was played at FK Jelgava Treniņbāze in Jelgava.