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Dob vs NŠ Drava — 2. SNL 2019

Dob
Dob
CANC
00:00
NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
4/19/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dob51%
×Draw22%
NŠ Drava27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dob
2.04
NŠ Drava
1.44

Dob creates 42% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dob
1.78
NŠ Drava
1.10

allows per match

Dob
1.78
NŠ Drava
2.31

finishing

Dob+0.00on par
NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dob ↓

NŠ Drava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dob or draw
73%
Dob or NŠ Drava
78%
Draw or NŠ Drava
49%

Winning margin

Dob wins by 2+
30%
NŠ Drava wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dob 1+ goals
87%
Dob 2+ goals
60%
Dob 3+ goals
33%
NŠ Drava 1+ goals
76%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
42%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dob (draw refunded)
65%
NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dob at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

NŠ Drava away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dob attack 1.78 + NŠ Drava defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Dob defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dob scores more
51%
level
22%
NŠ Drava scores more
27%

Dob at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dob face NŠ Drava (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Dob hosting NŠ Drava. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.