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Dob vs Brežice — 2. SNL 2019

Dob
Dob
CANC
00:00
Brežice
Brežice
3/21/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 22Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Dob49%
×Draw23%
Brežice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dob
1.82
Brežice
1.32

Dob creates 38% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dob
1.78
Brežice
0.86

allows per match

Dob
1.78
Brežice
1.86

finishing

Dob+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dob ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dob or draw
72%
Dob or Brežice
77%
Draw or Brežice
51%

Winning margin

Dob wins by 2+
27%
Brežice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dob 1+ goals
84%
Dob 2+ goals
54%
Dob 3+ goals
27%
Brežice 1+ goals
73%
Brežice 2+ goals
38%
Brežice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dob (draw refunded)
64%
Brežice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dob at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dob attack 1.78 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.82

Brežice attack 0.86 + Dob defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dob scores more
49%
level
23%
Brežice scores more
28%

Dob at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dob host Brežice

March 21, 2020: Dob take on Brežice in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dob host Brežice at Športni park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.