Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brežice vs Dob — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Brežice
Brežice
FT
3 – 0
Dob
Dob
2/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brežice33%
×Draw20%
Dob47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.92
Dob
2.33

Dob creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.50
Dob
0.67

allows per match

Brežice
4.00
Dob
2.33

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
Dob+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 77No: 2377%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Dob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
53%
Brežice or Dob
80%
Draw or Dob
67%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
17%
Dob wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
85%
Brežice 2+ goals
57%
Brežice 3+ goals
30%
Dob 1+ goals
90%
Dob 2+ goals
67%
Dob 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
41%
Dob (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Dob away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.50 + Dob defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Dob attack 0.67 + Brežice defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brežice scores more
33%
level
20%
Dob scores more
47%

Dob at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Brežice
Dob
D. Vegel
Manager: D. Vegel
D. Birjukov
Manager: D. Birjukov

Match Recap: Brežice vs Dob

Brežice beat Dob 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.