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Dnipro-1 vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2019

Dnipro-1
Dnipro-1
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
4/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Dnipro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dnipro-142%
×Draw25%
Zorya Luhansk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dnipro-1
1.52
Zorya Luhansk
1.31

Dnipro-1 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dnipro-1
1.82
Zorya Luhansk
1.62

allows per match

Dnipro-1
1.01
Zorya Luhansk
1.23

finishing

Dnipro-1+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dnipro-1 ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dnipro-1 or draw
67%
Dnipro-1 or Zorya Luhansk
75%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
58%

Winning margin

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+
21%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dnipro-1 1+ goals
78%
Dnipro-1 2+ goals
45%
Dnipro-1 3+ goals
20%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
73%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
38%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)
56%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dnipro-1 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.01 · 67 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dnipro-1 attack 1.82 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.62 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dnipro-1 scores more
42%
level
25%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
33%

Dnipro-1 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dnipro-1 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dnipro-1 2–2 Zorya Luhansk

Dnipro-1 and Zorya Luhansk drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 9, 2024.

The match was played at Dnipro Arena in Dnipro.