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Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Premier League 2019

Dnipro-1
Dnipro-1
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
5/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Dnipro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dnipro-131%
×Draw25%
Shakhtar Donetsk44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dnipro-1
1.29
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.58

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dnipro-1
1.82
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.15

allows per match

Dnipro-1
1.01
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.76

finishing

Dnipro-1+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dnipro-1 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dnipro-1 or draw
56%
Dnipro-1 or Shakhtar Donetsk
75%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
69%

Winning margin

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+
13%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dnipro-1 1+ goals
72%
Dnipro-1 2+ goals
37%
Dnipro-1 3+ goals
14%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
79%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
47%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)
41%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dnipro-1 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.01 · 67 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dnipro-1 attack 1.82 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.15 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dnipro-1 scores more
31%
level
25%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
44%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dnipro-1 vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Dnipro-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Dnipro Arena in Dnipro.