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Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2019

Dnipro-1
Dnipro-1
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
11/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Dnipro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dnipro-150%
×Draw25%
Oleksandria24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dnipro-1
1.58
Oleksandria
1.02

Dnipro-1 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

creates per match

Dnipro-1
1.82
Oleksandria
1.03

allows per match

Dnipro-1
1.01
Oleksandria
1.33

finishing

Dnipro-1+0.00on par
Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dnipro-1 ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dnipro-1 or draw
76%
Dnipro-1 or Oleksandria
75%
Draw or Oleksandria
50%

Winning margin

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+
26%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dnipro-1 1+ goals
79%
Dnipro-1 2+ goals
47%
Dnipro-1 3+ goals
21%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
64%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
27%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)
67%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dnipro-1 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.01 · 67 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dnipro-1 attack 1.82 + Oleksandria defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Oleksandria attack 1.03 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dnipro-1 scores more
50%
level
25%
Oleksandria scores more
24%

Dnipro-1 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dnipro-1 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dnipro-1 1–0 Oleksandria

Dnipro-1 beat Oleksandria 1-0 in Premier League on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Dnipro Arena in Dnipro.