Dnipro-1 0–0 LNZ Cherkasy: Result & Stats

Dnipro-1

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LNZ Cherkasy

9/3/2023

Premier League · Round 6Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Dnipro-145%

×Draw27%

LNZ Cherkasy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dnipro-1Expected goals in this matchLNZ Cherkasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

Dnipro-1

1.38

LNZ Cherkasy

1.04

Dnipro-1 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 46 away

1.82

creates per match

1.07

1.01

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Dnipro-1

1.82

LNZ Cherkasy

1.07

allows per match

Dnipro-1

1.01

LNZ Cherkasy

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dnipro-1+0.00on par

LNZ Cherkasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dnipro-1 ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dnipro-1 or draw

72%

Dnipro-1 or LNZ Cherkasy

73%

Draw or LNZ Cherkasy

55%

Winning margin

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+

21%

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dnipro-1 1+ goals

75%

Dnipro-1 2+ goals

40%

Dnipro-1 3+ goals

16%

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

65%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

28%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)

61%

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dnipro-1 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.01 · 67 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dnipro-1 attack 1.82 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.07 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dnipro-1 scores more

45%

level

27%

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

28%

Dnipro-1 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dnipro-1 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff