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Dnipro-1 U19 vs Kolos Kovalivka U19 — U19 League 2023

Dnipro-1 U19
Dnipro-1 U19
FT
2 – 0
Kolos Kovalivka U19
Kolos Kovalivka U19
9/16/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 7Futbolʹnyy manezh FK Dnipro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dnipro-1 U1944%
×Draw25%
Kolos Kovalivka U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dnipro-1 U19
1.51
Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.20

Dnipro-1 U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dnipro-1 U19
1.80
Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.33

allows per match

Dnipro-1 U19
1.07
Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.22

finishing

Dnipro-1 U19+0.00on par
Kolos Kovalivka U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dnipro-1 U19 ↓

Kolos Kovalivka U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dnipro-1 U19 or draw
70%
Dnipro-1 U19 or Kolos Kovalivka U19
75%
Draw or Kolos Kovalivka U19
56%

Winning margin

Dnipro-1 U19 wins by 2+
22%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dnipro-1 U19 1+ goals
78%
Dnipro-1 U19 2+ goals
44%
Dnipro-1 U19 3+ goals
19%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 1+ goals
70%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 2+ goals
34%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dnipro-1 U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dnipro-1 U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Kolos Kovalivka U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dnipro-1 U19 attack 1.80 + Kolos Kovalivka U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.51

Kolos Kovalivka U19 attack 1.33 + Dnipro-1 U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dnipro-1 U19 scores more
44%
level
25%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 scores more
30%

Dnipro-1 U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dnipro-1 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Dnipro-1 U19 2–0 Kolos Kovalivka U19

Dnipro-1 U19 beat Kolos Kovalivka U19 2-0 in U19 League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Futbolʹnyy manezh FK Dnipro in Dnipropetrovs'k.