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DLR Waves W vs Treaty Utd W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

DLR Waves W
DLR Waves W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Treaty Utd W
Treaty Utd W
M. Doonan 10'
S. Young 37'
5/18/2024All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3Whitehall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

DLR Waves W43%
×Draw28%
Treaty Utd W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DLR Waves W
1.29
Treaty Utd W
1.01

DLR Waves W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

DLR Waves W
1.00
Treaty Utd W
0.86

allows per match

DLR Waves W
1.17
Treaty Utd W
1.57

finishing

DLR Waves W+0.00on par
Treaty Utd W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DLR Waves W ↓

Treaty Utd W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

DLR Waves W or draw
71%
DLR Waves W or Treaty Utd W
72%
Draw or Treaty Utd W
57%

Winning margin

DLR Waves W wins by 2+
19%
Treaty Utd W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

DLR Waves W 1+ goals
72%
DLR Waves W 2+ goals
37%
DLR Waves W 3+ goals
14%
Treaty Utd W 1+ goals
64%
Treaty Utd W 2+ goals
27%
Treaty Utd W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

DLR Waves W (draw refunded)
60%
Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DLR Waves W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Treaty Utd W away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DLR Waves W attack 1.00 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Treaty Utd W attack 0.86 + DLR Waves W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

DLR Waves W scores more
43%
level
28%
Treaty Utd W scores more
29%

DLR Waves W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "DLR Waves W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Doonan
37'
S. Young

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: DLR Waves W 1–1 Treaty Utd W

DLR Waves W and Treaty Utd W drew 1-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on May 18, 2024.

Goals: M. Doonan (10'), S. Young (37').

The match was played at Whitehall Stadium in Dublin.