DLR Waves W 1–2 Lisburn Ladies W: Result & Stats

DLR Waves W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lisburn Ladies W

K. Dodd 57' (pen)

5/24/2025

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2UCD Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

DLR Waves W56%

×Draw22%

Lisburn Ladies W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DLR Waves WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Ladies W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.08

DLR Waves W

1.88

Lisburn Ladies W

1.08

DLR Waves W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

DLR Waves W

1.00

Lisburn Ladies W

1.00

allows per match

DLR Waves W

1.17

Lisburn Ladies W

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

DLR Waves W+0.00on par

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DLR Waves W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

DLR Waves W or draw

78%

DLR Waves W or Lisburn Ladies W

78%

Draw or Lisburn Ladies W

44%

Winning margin

DLR Waves W wins by 2+

32%

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

DLR Waves W 1+ goals

85%

DLR Waves W 2+ goals

56%

DLR Waves W 3+ goals

29%

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

66%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

29%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

DLR Waves W (draw refunded)

72%

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DLR Waves W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DLR Waves W attack 1.00 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Lisburn Ladies W attack 1.00 + DLR Waves W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

DLR Waves W scores more

56%

level

22%

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

22%

DLR Waves W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "DLR Waves W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

K. DoddPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff