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Djursland vs Lyseng — League #127 2026

Djursland
Djursland
FT
0 – 5
Lyseng
Lyseng
5/1/2021League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 22HSM Arena Grenå

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Djursland12%
×Draw18%
Lyseng70%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djursland
0.78
Lyseng
2.21

Lyseng creates 183% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Djursland
1.33
Lyseng
2.00

allows per match

Djursland
2.42
Lyseng
0.22

finishing

Djursland+0.00on par
Lyseng+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djursland ↓

Lyseng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Djursland or draw
30%
Djursland or Lyseng
82%
Draw or Lyseng
88%

Winning margin

Djursland wins by 2+
3%
Lyseng wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Djursland 1+ goals
54%
Djursland 2+ goals
18%
Djursland 3+ goals
4%
Lyseng 1+ goals
89%
Lyseng 2+ goals
65%
Lyseng 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Djursland (draw refunded)
15%
Lyseng (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djursland at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

Lyseng away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djursland attack 1.33 + Lyseng defence 0.22 → ÷2 → 0.78

Lyseng attack 2.00 + Djursland defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Djursland scores more
12%
level
18%
Lyseng scores more
70%

Lyseng at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lyseng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djursland vs Lyseng

Lyseng beat Djursland 5-0 in League #127 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at HSM Arena Grenå in Grenaa.