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Djursland vs Hjørring IF — League #126 2026

Djursland
Djursland
FT
0 – 1
Hjørring IF
Hjørring IF
8/23/2014League #126League #126 · Round 2Grenå Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Djursland13%
×Draw16%
Hjørring IF71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djursland
1.13
Hjørring IF
2.75

Hjørring IF creates 143% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Djursland
1.25
Hjørring IF
3.50

allows per match

Djursland
2.00
Hjørring IF
1.00

finishing

Djursland+0.00on par
Hjørring IF+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djursland ↓

Hjørring IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Djursland or draw
29%
Djursland or Hjørring IF
84%
Draw or Hjørring IF
87%

Winning margin

Djursland wins by 2+
5%
Hjørring IF wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Djursland 1+ goals
68%
Djursland 2+ goals
31%
Djursland 3+ goals
11%
Hjørring IF 1+ goals
93%
Hjørring IF 2+ goals
75%
Hjørring IF 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Djursland (draw refunded)
16%
Hjørring IF (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djursland at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Hjørring IF away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djursland attack 1.25 + Hjørring IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hjørring IF attack 3.50 + Djursland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Djursland scores more
13%
level
16%
Hjørring IF scores more
71%

Hjørring IF at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Hjørring IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djursland vs Hjørring IF

Hjørring IF beat Djursland 1-0 in League #126 on August 23, 2014.

The match was played at Grenå Stadion in Grenaa.