Djurgardens IF 7–0 Umeå FC: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Umeå FC

2/28/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Djurgardens IF57%

×Draw21%

Umeå FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchUmeå FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.21

Djurgardens IF

2.09

Umeå FC

1.21

Djurgardens IF creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

2.32

creates per match

1.57

0.84

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

2.32

Umeå FC

1.57

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.84

Umeå FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Umeå FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

78%

Djurgardens IF or Umeå FC

79%

Draw or Umeå FC

43%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

35%

Umeå FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

88%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

62%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

34%

Umeå FC 1+ goals

70%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

34%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

73%

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Umeå FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.09

Umeå FC attack 1.57 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

57%

level

21%

Umeå FC scores more

22%

Djurgardens IF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff