Djurgardens IF 1–1 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Trelleborg

4/8/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 2Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Djurgardens IF62%

×Draw21%

Trelleborg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.89

Djurgardens IF

1.95

Trelleborg

0.89

Djurgardens IF creates 119% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

0.80

0.97

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.83

Trelleborg

0.80

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.97

Trelleborg

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

83%

Djurgardens IF or Trelleborg

79%

Draw or Trelleborg

38%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

37%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

86%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

58%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

31%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

59%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

22%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

79%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 127 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.83 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.95

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

62%

level

21%

Trelleborg scores more

17%

Djurgardens IF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff