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Djurgardens IF vs Skövde AIK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
2/19/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Djurgardens IF56%
×Draw22%
Skövde AIK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.94
Skövde AIK
1.15

Djurgardens IF creates 69% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.32
Skövde AIK
1.45

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.84
Skövde AIK
1.55

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
78%
Djurgardens IF or Skövde AIK
78%
Draw or Skövde AIK
44%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
32%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
86%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
58%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
30%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
68%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
32%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
71%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Skövde AIK defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Skövde AIK attack 1.45 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
56%
level
22%
Skövde AIK scores more
22%

Djurgardens IF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Skövde AIK

Djurgardens IF beat Skövde AIK 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.