Djurgardens IF 1–2 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Orebro SK

E. Kujović 35'

R. Book 89'

N. Besara 39'

6/17/2020

Allsvenskan · Round 2Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Djurgardens IF57%

×Draw23%

Orebro SK20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.96

Djurgardens IF

1.80

Orebro SK

0.96

Djurgardens IF creates 88% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 60 away

1.85

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.85

Orebro SK

0.95

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.97

Orebro SK

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

80%

Djurgardens IF or Orebro SK

77%

Draw or Orebro SK

43%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

32%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

83%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

54%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

27%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

62%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

25%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

74%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.97 · 128 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.85 + Orebro SK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Orebro SK attack 0.95 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

57%

level

23%

Orebro SK scores more

20%

Djurgardens IF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Nahir Besara

Orebro SK · F

8.3

Match Events

32'

F. Ulvestad

35'

E. Kujović↳ N. Bärkroth

39'

N. Besara↳ K. Wright

59'

J. Martensson

61'

O. Pettersson← E. Kujović

62'

J. Ring← N. Bärkroth

65'

D. Seger← J. Larsson

71'

A. Ajdarević← K. Holmberg

79'

D. Seger

81'

N. Besara

81'

E. Berg← H. Radetinac

84'

A. Mehmeti← N. Besara

89'

R. Book↳ D. Seger

90+2'

E. Bjorndahl

90'

B. Hjertstrand← R. Book

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgardensOrebro

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots17

5Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots17

4On Target7

7Off Target8

4Blocked2

11Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

548Total Passes332

484Accurate Passes276

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0