Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Djurgardens IF vs IK brage — Svenska Cupen 2019

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
2/21/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Djurgardens IF49%
×Draw23%
IK brage28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.82
IK brage
1.33

Djurgardens IF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.32
IK brage
1.83

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.84
IK brage
1.33

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
72%
Djurgardens IF or IK brage
77%
Draw or IK brage
51%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
27%
IK brage wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
84%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
54%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
27%
IK brage 1+ goals
74%
IK brage 2+ goals
38%
IK brage 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
63%
IK brage (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + IK brage defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.82

IK brage attack 1.83 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
49%
level
23%
IK brage scores more
28%

Djurgardens IF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs IK brage

Djurgardens IF beat IK brage 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 21, 2022.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.