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Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna — Allsvenskan 2018

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
8/24/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 213Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Djurgardens IF52%
×Draw23%
IF Brommapojkarna25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.83
IF Brommapojkarna
1.20

Djurgardens IF creates 53% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 68 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
1.83
IF Brommapojkarna
1.43

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.97
IF Brommapojkarna
1.84

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
75%
Djurgardens IF or IF Brommapojkarna
77%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
48%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
29%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
84%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
54%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
28%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
70%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
34%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
68%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 127 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.83 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.43 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
52%
level
23%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
25%

Djurgardens IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Djurgardens IF 1–0 IF Brommapojkarna

Djurgardens IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 in Allsvenskan on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.