Djurgardens IF 1–1 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AIK Stockholm

M. Danielson 26' (pen)

A. Saletros 83'

5/4/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 73Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Djurgardens IF47%

×Draw25%

AIK Stockholm27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.12

Djurgardens IF

1.56

AIK Stockholm

1.12

Djurgardens IF creates 39% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 128 away

1.83

creates per match

1.27

0.97

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.83

AIK Stockholm

1.27

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.97

AIK Stockholm

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

73%

Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm

75%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

53%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

24%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

79%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

46%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

21%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

67%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

31%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

63%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 127 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.83 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

AIK Stockholm attack 1.27 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

47%

level

25%

AIK Stockholm scores more

27%

Djurgardens IF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Saletros

AIK Stockholm · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Theo Bergvall

21'

Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen

23'

Thomas Isherwood

24'

Sotirios Papagiannopoulos

26'

M. DanielsonPenalty

31'

I. Alemayehu Mulugeta← A. Ekdal

38'

A. Priske← A. Stahl

55'

Zakaria Sawo

70'

Miro Tenho

70'

V. Andersson← B. Tiedemann

77'

J. Une-Larsson← T. Gulliksen

77'

V. Bergh← T. Bergvall

77'

T. Nguen← Z. Sawo

80'

Miro Tenho

80'

Miro Tenho

83'

A. Saletros↳ J. Guidetti

88'

A. Fesshaie← J. Hove

89'

Victor Andersson

90+8'

K. Karlsson← D. Besirovic

90+8'

A. Kakoullis← J. Guidetti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgardensAIK

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots18

1.98Expected Goals (xG)1.51

4Corners7

12Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots18

2On Target2

3Off Target10

2Blocked6

5Inside Box9

2Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

369Total Passes381

257Accurate Passes284

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls17

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1