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Djurgården W vs Umeå W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Djurgården W
Djurgården W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Umeå W
Umeå W
7/4/2020DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 2Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Djurgården W60%
×Draw21%
Umeå W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgården W
2.09
Umeå W
1.11

Djurgården W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 25 away

creates per match

Djurgården W
1.43
Umeå W
0.72

allows per match

Djurgården W
1.51
Umeå W
2.76

finishing

Djurgården W+0.00on par
Umeå W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Umeå W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw
80%
Djurgården W or Umeå W
79%
Draw or Umeå W
40%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+
36%
Umeå W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals
88%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
62%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
34%
Umeå W 1+ goals
67%
Umeå W 2+ goals
30%
Umeå W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)
75%
Umeå W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.51 · 79 matches

Umeå W away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.43 + Umeå W defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.09

Umeå W attack 0.72 + Djurgården W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Djurgården W scores more
60%
level
21%
Umeå W scores more
20%

Djurgården W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djurgården W vs Umeå W

Djurgården W and Umeå W drew 1-1 in Damallsvenskan on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stockholms Olympiastadion in Stockholm.