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Djurgården W vs Trelleborg W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Djurgården W
Djurgården W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trelleborg W
Trelleborg W
S. Koyama 59'
T. Åsland 28'
4/13/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 1Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djurgården W72%
×Draw16%
Trelleborg W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgården W
2.60
Trelleborg W
0.95

Djurgården W creates 174% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djurgården W
1.43
Trelleborg W
0.38

allows per match

Djurgården W
1.51
Trelleborg W
3.77

finishing

Djurgården W+0.00on par
Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Trelleborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw
88%
Djurgården W or Trelleborg W
84%
Draw or Trelleborg W
28%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+
51%
Trelleborg W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals
92%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
73%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
47%
Trelleborg W 1+ goals
61%
Trelleborg W 2+ goals
25%
Trelleborg W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)
86%
Trelleborg W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.51 · 79 matches

Trelleborg W away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.43 + Trelleborg W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.60

Trelleborg W attack 0.38 + Djurgården W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Djurgården W scores more
72%
level
16%
Trelleborg W scores more
12%

Djurgården W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. ÅslandDjurgården WDjurgården W · M
8.9

Match Events

28'
T. Åsland
46'
O. Strid← L. Sternfeldt
59'
S. Koyama
67'
T. Persson Welin← H. Persson
67'
I. Jonsson← E. Persson Welin
69'
L. Hvarfner← L. Duras
76'
A. Hedman← A. Lobanova
77'
A. Olsson← L. Prambrant
77'
M. Karlsson← A. Egnér
84'
M. Staffansson← T. Almqvist
84'
E. Westlund← E. Hed

Possession

54%Djurgården

Shots

27Djurgården

Pass accuracy

52%Djurgården

Statistics

DjurgårdenTrelleborg
Overview
54%Possession46%
27Total Shots3
4.58Expected Goals (xG)0.15
7Corners0
2Fouls7
Shots
27Total Shots3
10On Target0
11Off Target1
5Blocked2
17Inside Box2
10Outside Box1
Passing
54%Possession46%
512Total Passes401
419Accurate Passes308
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
2Fouls7
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Damallsvenskan: Djurgården W 2–0 Trelleborg W

Djurgården W beat Trelleborg W 2-0 in Damallsvenskan on April 13, 2024.

Goals: T. Åsland (28'), S. Koyama (59').

Djurgården W controlled possession (54%) and registered 27 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stockholms Olympiastadion in Stockholm.