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Djurgården W vs Kalmar W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Djurgården W
Djurgården W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Kalmar W
Kalmar W
10/1/2023DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 21Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Djurgården W65%
×Draw19%
Kalmar W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgården W
2.37
Kalmar W
1.12

Djurgården W creates 112% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 26 away

creates per match

Djurgården W
1.43
Kalmar W
0.73

allows per match

Djurgården W
1.51
Kalmar W
3.31

finishing

Djurgården W+0.00on par
Kalmar W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Kalmar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw
83%
Djurgården W or Kalmar W
81%
Draw or Kalmar W
35%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+
42%
Kalmar W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals
91%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
68%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
42%
Kalmar W 1+ goals
67%
Kalmar W 2+ goals
31%
Kalmar W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)
80%
Kalmar W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.51 · 79 matches

Kalmar W away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.43 + Kalmar W defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kalmar W attack 0.73 + Djurgården W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Djurgården W scores more
65%
level
19%
Kalmar W scores more
17%

Djurgården W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Djurgården W 4–0 Kalmar W

Djurgården W beat Kalmar W 4-0 in Damallsvenskan on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stockholms Olympiastadion in Stockholm.