Djoliba 0–1 ES Tunis: Result & Stats

Djoliba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ES Tunis

1/12/2025

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 5Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Djoliba46%

×Draw32%

ES Tunis22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DjolibaExpected goals in this matchES Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.68

Djoliba

1.11

ES Tunis

0.68

Djoliba creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 40 away

1.33

creates per match

1.02

0.33

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Djoliba

1.33

ES Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Djoliba

0.33

ES Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

ES Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw

78%

Djoliba or ES Tunis

68%

Draw or ES Tunis

54%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+

19%

ES Tunis wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals

67%

Djoliba 2+ goals

30%

Djoliba 3+ goals

10%

ES Tunis 1+ goals

49%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

15%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)

67%

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.33 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + Djoliba defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Djoliba scores more

46%

level

32%

ES Tunis scores more

22%

Djoliba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff