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Djoliba vs Derby Academie — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Derby Academie
Derby Academie
12/17/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 2Complex Sportif Heremakono

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djoliba51%
×Draw31%
Derby Academie18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.21
Derby Academie
0.59

Djoliba creates 105% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Derby Academie
0.69

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
Derby Academie
0.85

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Derby Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Derby Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
82%
Djoliba or Derby Academie
69%
Draw or Derby Academie
49%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
23%
Derby Academie wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
70%
Djoliba 2+ goals
34%
Djoliba 3+ goals
12%
Derby Academie 1+ goals
45%
Derby Academie 2+ goals
12%
Derby Academie 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
74%
Derby Academie (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

Derby Academie away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Derby Academie attack 0.69 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Djoliba scores more
51%
level
31%
Derby Academie scores more
18%

Djoliba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Djoliba 1–1 Derby Academie

Djoliba and Derby Academie drew 1-1 in Première Division on December 17, 2025.

The match was played at Complex Sportif Heremakono in Bamako.