Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Djoliba vs ASKO Kara — CAF Champions League 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ASKO Kara
ASKO Kara
9/14/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Djoliba66%
×Draw24%
ASKO Kara10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.60
ASKO Kara
0.45

Djoliba creates 256% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.33
ASKO Kara
0.57

allows per match

Djoliba
0.33
ASKO Kara
1.86

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
ASKO Kara+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

ASKO Kara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
90%
Djoliba or ASKO Kara
76%
Draw or ASKO Kara
34%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
37%
ASKO Kara wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
80%
Djoliba 2+ goals
47%
Djoliba 3+ goals
22%
ASKO Kara 1+ goals
36%
ASKO Kara 2+ goals
8%
ASKO Kara 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
87%
ASKO Kara (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

ASKO Kara away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.33 + ASKO Kara defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

ASKO Kara attack 0.57 + Djoliba defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Djoliba scores more
66%
level
24%
ASKO Kara scores more
10%

Djoliba at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djoliba vs ASKO Kara

Djoliba beat ASKO Kara 1-0 in CAF Champions League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade 26 Mars in Bamako.