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Djerv vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Djerv
Djerv
CANC
14:00
Start II
Start II
8/8/20203. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 1Djervbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Djerv45%
×Draw22%
Start II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerv
1.90
Start II
1.61

Djerv creates 18% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 6 away

creates per match

Djerv
2.62
Start II
1.67

allows per match

Djerv
1.56
Start II
1.17

finishing

Djerv+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerv ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Djerv or draw
67%
Djerv or Start II
78%
Draw or Start II
55%

Winning margin

Djerv wins by 2+
25%
Start II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Djerv 1+ goals
85%
Djerv 2+ goals
56%
Djerv 3+ goals
29%
Start II 1+ goals
80%
Start II 2+ goals
48%
Start II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Djerv (draw refunded)
58%
Start II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerv at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

Start II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerv attack 2.62 + Start II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Start II attack 1.67 + Djerv defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Djerv scores more
45%
level
22%
Start II scores more
33%

Djerv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Djerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Djerv vs Start II — Match Preview

Djerv face Start II on August 8, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Djerv host Start II at Djervbanen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.