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Djerv vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Djerv
Djerv
FT
2 – 2
Frøya
Frøya
6/10/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 9Djervbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djerv52%
×Draw21%
Frøya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerv
2.12
Frøya
1.47

Djerv creates 44% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djerv
2.62
Frøya
1.38

allows per match

Djerv
1.56
Frøya
1.62

finishing

Djerv+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerv ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Djerv or draw
73%
Djerv or Frøya
79%
Draw or Frøya
48%

Winning margin

Djerv wins by 2+
31%
Frøya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Djerv 1+ goals
88%
Djerv 2+ goals
62%
Djerv 3+ goals
35%
Frøya 1+ goals
77%
Frøya 2+ goals
43%
Frøya 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Djerv (draw refunded)
66%
Frøya (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerv at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerv attack 2.62 + Frøya defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.12

Frøya attack 1.38 + Djerv defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Djerv scores more
52%
level
21%
Frøya scores more
27%

Djerv at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Djerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Djerv 2–2 Frøya

Djerv and Frøya drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Djervbanen in Haugesund.