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Djerv vs Floro — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Djerv
Djerv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Floro
Floro
4/20/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 3Djervbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djerv75%
×Draw14%
Floro12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerv
3.27
Floro
1.27

Djerv creates 157% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djerv
2.77
Floro
0.77

allows per match

Djerv
1.77
Floro
3.77

finishing

Djerv+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerv ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Djerv or draw
88%
Djerv or Floro
86%
Draw or Floro
25%

Winning margin

Djerv wins by 2+
56%
Floro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Djerv 1+ goals
96%
Djerv 2+ goals
83%
Djerv 3+ goals
62%
Floro 1+ goals
72%
Floro 2+ goals
36%
Floro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Djerv (draw refunded)
87%
Floro (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerv at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Floro away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerv attack 2.77 + Floro defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 3.27

Floro attack 0.77 + Djerv defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Djerv scores more
75%
level
14%
Floro scores more
12%

Djerv at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Djerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Djerv 2–0 Floro

Djerv beat Floro 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Djervbanen in Haugesund.