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Djerv vs Bremnes — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Djerv
Djerv
FT
4 – 1
Bremnes
Bremnes
5/5/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 5Djervbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Djerv67%
×Draw16%
Bremnes16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerv
2.87
Bremnes
1.38

Djerv creates 108% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

creates per match

Djerv
2.62
Bremnes
1.19

allows per match

Djerv
1.56
Bremnes
3.12

finishing

Djerv+0.00on par
Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerv ↓

Bremnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Djerv or draw
84%
Djerv or Bremnes
84%
Draw or Bremnes
33%

Winning margin

Djerv wins by 2+
47%
Bremnes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Djerv 1+ goals
94%
Djerv 2+ goals
77%
Djerv 3+ goals
53%
Bremnes 1+ goals
75%
Bremnes 2+ goals
40%
Bremnes 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Djerv (draw refunded)
80%
Bremnes (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerv at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerv attack 2.62 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.87

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Djerv defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Djerv scores more
67%
level
16%
Bremnes scores more
16%

Djerv at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Djerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Djerv 4–1 Bremnes

Djerv beat Bremnes 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Djervbanen in Haugesund.