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Djerv vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Djerv
Djerv
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 2
Årdal
Årdal
9/28/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 23Djervbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djerv68%
×Draw15%
Årdal17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerv
3.34
Årdal
1.66

Djerv creates 101% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djerv
2.77
Årdal
1.54

allows per match

Djerv
1.77
Årdal
3.92

finishing

Djerv+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerv ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Djerv or draw
83%
Djerv or Årdal
85%
Draw or Årdal
32%

Winning margin

Djerv wins by 2+
50%
Årdal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Djerv 1+ goals
96%
Djerv 2+ goals
84%
Djerv 3+ goals
63%
Årdal 1+ goals
81%
Årdal 2+ goals
49%
Årdal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Djerv (draw refunded)
80%
Årdal (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerv at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Årdal away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerv attack 2.77 + Årdal defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.34

Årdal attack 1.54 + Djerv defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Djerv scores more
68%
level
15%
Årdal scores more
17%

Djerv at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Djerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djerv vs Årdal

Årdal beat Djerv 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Djervbanen in Haugesund.