Djerdap Kladovo 1–0 Žitorađa: Result & Stats

Djerdap Kladovo

FT

1 – 0

Žitorađa

9/2/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 4Stadion FK Đerdap

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Djerdap Kladovo78%

×Draw14%

Žitorađa8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djerdap KladovoExpected goals in this matchŽitorađa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

0.77

Djerdap Kladovo

2.75

Žitorađa

0.77

Djerdap Kladovo creates 257% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.42

creates per match

0.53

1.00

allows per match

4.07

creates per match

Djerdap Kladovo

1.42

Žitorađa

0.53

allows per match

Djerdap Kladovo

1.00

Žitorađa

4.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par

Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerdap Kladovo ↓

Žitorađa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Djerdap Kladovo or draw

92%

Djerdap Kladovo or Žitorađa

86%

Draw or Žitorađa

22%

Winning margin

Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+

57%

Žitorađa wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals

93%

Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals

75%

Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals

51%

Žitorađa 1+ goals

54%

Žitorađa 2+ goals

18%

Žitorađa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)

91%

Žitorađa (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerdap Kladovo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.42 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 2.75

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Djerdap Kladovo scores more

78%

level

14%

Žitorađa scores more

8%

Djerdap Kladovo at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Djerdap Kladovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff