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Djerdap Kladovo vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
FT
1 – 0
Timočanin
Timočanin
3/30/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20Stadion FK Đerdap

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Djerdap Kladovo49%
×Draw26%
Timočanin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerdap Kladovo
1.54
Timočanin
1.02

Djerdap Kladovo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

creates per match

Djerdap Kladovo
1.42
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Djerdap Kladovo
1.00
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerdap Kladovo ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Djerdap Kladovo or draw
75%
Djerdap Kladovo or Timočanin
74%
Draw or Timočanin
51%

Winning margin

Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
25%
Timočanin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
79%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
45%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
20%
Timočanin 1+ goals
64%
Timočanin 2+ goals
27%
Timočanin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
66%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerdap Kladovo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.42 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Djerdap Kladovo scores more
49%
level
26%
Timočanin scores more
25%

Djerdap Kladovo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Djerdap Kladovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djerdap Kladovo vs Timočanin

Djerdap Kladovo beat Timočanin 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Đerdap in Kladovo.