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Djerdap Kladovo vs FK Trayal — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
FK Trayal
FK Trayal
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion FK Đerdap

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Djerdap Kladovo24%
×Draw27%
FK Trayal49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerdap Kladovo
0.92
FK Trayal
1.45

FK Trayal creates 58% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Djerdap Kladovo
1.42
FK Trayal
1.90

allows per match

Djerdap Kladovo
1.00
FK Trayal
0.43

finishing

Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par
FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerdap Kladovo ↓

FK Trayal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Djerdap Kladovo or draw
51%
Djerdap Kladovo or FK Trayal
73%
Draw or FK Trayal
76%

Winning margin

Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
8%
FK Trayal wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
60%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
23%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
7%
FK Trayal 1+ goals
77%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
42%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
33%
FK Trayal (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerdap Kladovo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.42 + FK Trayal defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.92

FK Trayal attack 1.90 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Djerdap Kladovo scores more
24%
level
27%
FK Trayal scores more
49%

FK Trayal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djerdap Kladovo vs FK Trayal

FK Trayal beat Djerdap Kladovo 4-2 in Srpska Liga - East on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Đerdap in Kladovo.