Djerdap Kladovo 4–3 Budućnost Popovac

Djerdap Kladovo

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Budućnost Popovac

5/11/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 27Stadion FK Đerdap

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Djerdap Kladovo43%

×Draw26%

Budućnost Popovac31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djerdap KladovoExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Popovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.20

Djerdap Kladovo

1.44

Budućnost Popovac

1.20

Djerdap Kladovo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 87 away

1.42

creates per match

1.40

1.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Djerdap Kladovo

1.42

Budućnost Popovac

1.40

allows per match

Djerdap Kladovo

1.00

Budućnost Popovac

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerdap Kladovo ↓

Budućnost Popovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Djerdap Kladovo or draw

69%

Djerdap Kladovo or Budućnost Popovac

74%

Draw or Budućnost Popovac

57%

Winning margin

Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+

20%

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals

76%

Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals

42%

Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals

18%

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

70%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

34%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)

58%

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerdap Kladovo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.42 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Djerdap Kladovo scores more

43%

level

26%

Budućnost Popovac scores more

31%

Djerdap Kladovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Djerdap Kladovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff