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Djerba vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

Djerba
Djerba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
12/7/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Jerba Houmt Souk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Djerba46%
×Draw31%
Sporting Ben Arous23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerba
1.18
Sporting Ben Arous
0.74

Djerba creates 59% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

Djerba
1.09
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

Djerba
0.95
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

Djerba+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerba ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djerba or draw
77%
Djerba or Sporting Ben Arous
69%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
54%

Winning margin

Djerba wins by 2+
20%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Djerba 1+ goals
69%
Djerba 2+ goals
33%
Djerba 3+ goals
12%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
52%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
17%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Djerba (draw refunded)
67%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerba at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerba attack 1.09 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Djerba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Djerba scores more
46%
level
31%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
23%

Djerba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Djerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djerba vs Sporting Ben Arous

Sporting Ben Arous beat Djerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Jerba Houmt Souk in Houmt Souk.