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Djerba vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Djerba
Djerba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
2/20/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Jerba Houmt Souk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Djerba40%
×Draw31%
Jendouba Sport30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerba
1.10
Jendouba Sport
0.91

Djerba creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 59 away

creates per match

Djerba
1.09
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

Djerba
0.95
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

Djerba+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerba ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djerba or draw
70%
Djerba or Jendouba Sport
69%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
60%

Winning margin

Djerba wins by 2+
16%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Djerba 1+ goals
67%
Djerba 2+ goals
30%
Djerba 3+ goals
10%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
60%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
23%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Djerba (draw refunded)
57%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerba at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerba attack 1.09 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Djerba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Djerba scores more
40%
level
31%
Jendouba Sport scores more
30%

Djerba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Djerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djerba vs Jendouba Sport

Jendouba Sport beat Djerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Jerba Houmt Souk in Houmt Souk.