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Djelma vs JS Kairouanaise — Ligue 2 2020

Djelma
Djelma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
M. Jerbi 6'
5/5/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade de Jilma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Djelma42%
×Draw32%
JS Kairouanaise26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djelma
1.08
JS Kairouanaise
0.78

Djelma creates 38% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

creates per match

Djelma
1.16
JS Kairouanaise
0.87

allows per match

Djelma
0.68
JS Kairouanaise
1.00

finishing

Djelma+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djelma ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Djelma or draw
74%
Djelma or JS Kairouanaise
68%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
58%

Winning margin

Djelma wins by 2+
17%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Djelma 1+ goals
66%
Djelma 2+ goals
29%
Djelma 3+ goals
10%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
54%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
18%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Djelma (draw refunded)
62%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djelma at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djelma attack 1.16 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.87 + Djelma defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Djelma scores more
42%
level
32%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
26%

Djelma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Djelma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Jerbi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djelma vs JS Kairouanaise

JS Kairouanaise beat Djelma 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 5, 2025.

Goals: M. Jerbi (6').

The match was played at Stade de Jilma in Jilma.