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Djelma vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

Djelma
Djelma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
10/19/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Djelma53%
×Draw28%
EO Sidi Bouzid20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djelma
1.40
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.73

Djelma creates 92% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 49 away

creates per match

Djelma
1.16
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

Djelma
0.68
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

Djelma+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djelma ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Djelma or draw
80%
Djelma or EO Sidi Bouzid
72%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
47%

Winning margin

Djelma wins by 2+
26%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Djelma 1+ goals
75%
Djelma 2+ goals
41%
Djelma 3+ goals
17%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
52%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
17%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Djelma (draw refunded)
73%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djelma at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djelma attack 1.16 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + Djelma defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Djelma scores more
53%
level
28%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
20%

Djelma at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Djelma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djelma vs EO Sidi Bouzid

Djelma and EO Sidi Bouzid drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on October 19, 2025.