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Djelma vs CS Chebba — Ligue 2 2020

Djelma
Djelma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Chebba
CS Chebba
2/11/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade de Jilma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Djelma54%
×Draw27%
CS Chebba18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djelma
1.42
CS Chebba
0.70

Djelma creates 103% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Djelma
1.16
CS Chebba
0.71

allows per match

Djelma
0.68
CS Chebba
1.68

finishing

Djelma+0.00on par
CS Chebba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djelma ↓

CS Chebba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Djelma or draw
82%
Djelma or CS Chebba
73%
Draw or CS Chebba
46%

Winning margin

Djelma wins by 2+
27%
CS Chebba wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Djelma 1+ goals
76%
Djelma 2+ goals
41%
Djelma 3+ goals
17%
CS Chebba 1+ goals
50%
CS Chebba 2+ goals
16%
CS Chebba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djelma (draw refunded)
75%
CS Chebba (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djelma at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

CS Chebba away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djelma attack 1.16 + CS Chebba defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

CS Chebba attack 0.71 + Djelma defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Djelma scores more
54%
level
27%
CS Chebba scores more
18%

Djelma at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Djelma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Djelma 1–0 CS Chebba

Djelma beat CS Chebba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Jilma in Jilma.