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Djelma vs Bouchamma — Ligue 2 2020

Djelma
Djelma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bouchamma
Bouchamma
B. Brahmi 46'
A. Hamdi 90'
2/27/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djelma48%
×Draw29%
Bouchamma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djelma
1.27
Bouchamma
0.77

Djelma creates 65% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djelma
1.16
Bouchamma
0.85

allows per match

Djelma
0.68
Bouchamma
1.38

finishing

Djelma+0.00on par
Bouchamma+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djelma ↓

Bouchamma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Djelma or draw
77%
Djelma or Bouchamma
71%
Draw or Bouchamma
52%

Winning margin

Djelma wins by 2+
22%
Bouchamma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Djelma 1+ goals
72%
Djelma 2+ goals
36%
Djelma 3+ goals
14%
Bouchamma 1+ goals
54%
Bouchamma 2+ goals
18%
Bouchamma 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Djelma (draw refunded)
68%
Bouchamma (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djelma at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

Bouchamma away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djelma attack 1.16 + Bouchamma defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bouchamma attack 0.85 + Djelma defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Djelma scores more
48%
level
29%
Bouchamma scores more
23%

Djelma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Djelma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
B. Brahmi
90'
A. Hamdi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djelma vs Bouchamma

Djelma and Bouchamma drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2026.

Goals: B. Brahmi (46'), A. Hamdi (90').