Djelma 2–0 Baath Bouhajla: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Djelma

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baath Bouhajla

11/24/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade de Jilma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djelma47%

×Draw32%

Baath Bouhajla21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DjelmaExpected goals in this matchBaath Bouhajla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.65

Djelma

1.12

Baath Bouhajla

0.65

Djelma creates 72% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

1.16

creates per match

0.62

0.68

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Djelma

1.16

Baath Bouhajla

0.62

allows per match

Djelma

0.68

Baath Bouhajla

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djelma+0.00on par

Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djelma ↓

Baath Bouhajla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Djelma or draw

79%

Djelma or Baath Bouhajla

68%

Draw or Baath Bouhajla

53%

Winning margin

Djelma wins by 2+

20%

Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Djelma 1+ goals

67%

Djelma 2+ goals

31%

Djelma 3+ goals

10%

Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals

48%

Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals

14%

Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Djelma (draw refunded)

69%

Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djelma at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

Baath Bouhajla away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djelma attack 1.16 + Baath Bouhajla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Baath Bouhajla attack 0.62 + Djelma defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Djelma scores more

47%

level

32%

Baath Bouhajla scores more

21%

Djelma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Djelma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff