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Djeffa vs JAC — Championnat National 2019

Djeffa
Djeffa
FT
3 – 1
JAC
JAC
6/20/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Djeffa45%
×Draw32%
JAC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djeffa
1.10
JAC
0.68

Djeffa creates 62% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 41 away

creates per match

Djeffa
0.80
JAC
0.61

allows per match

Djeffa
0.75
JAC
1.41

finishing

Djeffa+0.00on par
JAC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djeffa ↓

JAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Djeffa or draw
77%
Djeffa or JAC
68%
Draw or JAC
55%

Winning margin

Djeffa wins by 2+
19%
JAC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Djeffa 1+ goals
67%
Djeffa 2+ goals
30%
Djeffa 3+ goals
10%
JAC 1+ goals
49%
JAC 2+ goals
15%
JAC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djeffa (draw refunded)
67%
JAC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djeffa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

JAC away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djeffa attack 0.80 + JAC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

JAC attack 0.61 + Djeffa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Djeffa scores more
45%
level
32%
JAC scores more
23%

Djeffa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Djeffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Djeffa 3–1 JAC

Djeffa beat JAC 3-1 in Championnat National on June 20, 2021.