Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Djeffa vs Coton Sport Ouidah — Championnat National 2019

Djeffa
Djeffa
FT
1 – 2
Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
5/8/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 13Stade Charles de Gaulle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Djeffa28%
×Draw34%
Coton Sport Ouidah38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djeffa
0.77
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.95

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 23% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 94 away

creates per match

Djeffa
0.80
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.16

allows per match

Djeffa
0.75
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.73

finishing

Djeffa+0.00on par
Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djeffa ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Djeffa or draw
62%
Djeffa or Coton Sport Ouidah
66%
Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah
72%

Winning margin

Djeffa wins by 2+
9%
Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Djeffa 1+ goals
54%
Djeffa 2+ goals
18%
Djeffa 3+ goals
4%
Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
61%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
25%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Djeffa (draw refunded)
42%
Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djeffa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djeffa attack 0.80 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.16 + Djeffa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Djeffa scores more
28%
level
34%
Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
38%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Djeffa 1–2 Coton Sport Ouidah

Coton Sport Ouidah beat Djeffa 2-1 in Championnat National on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Charles de Gaulle in Porto-Novo.