Djeffa 0–1 Béké Bembèrèkè: Result & Stats

Djeffa

FT

0 – 1

Béké Bembèrèkè

4/24/2022

Championnat National · Championship Round - 12Stade Charles de Gaulle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Djeffa38%

×Draw33%

Béké Bembèrèkè30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DjeffaExpected goals in this matchBéké Bembèrèkè

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.83

Djeffa

0.98

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.83

Djeffa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

0.80

creates per match

0.91

0.75

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Djeffa

0.80

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.91

allows per match

Djeffa

0.75

Béké Bembèrèkè

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djeffa+0.00on par

Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djeffa ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Djeffa or draw

70%

Djeffa or Béké Bembèrèkè

67%

Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè

62%

Winning margin

Djeffa wins by 2+

14%

Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Djeffa 1+ goals

62%

Djeffa 2+ goals

26%

Djeffa 3+ goals

8%

Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals

56%

Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals

20%

Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Djeffa (draw refunded)

56%

Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djeffa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djeffa attack 0.80 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.91 + Djeffa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Djeffa scores more

38%

level

33%

Béké Bembèrèkè scores more

30%

Djeffa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Djeffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff